Good afternoon to you ALL it is #ThePuntersPal here (@the_daily_bets), one of twitter’s most notorious and established #stateside tipsters who not only bashes them in the UK, Ireland and Rest of Europe but also has a penchant for the ever-enigmatic concept of “#statesidebashing” whereby we do what it says on the tin & bash the yanks. After receiving more than 100 likes on our pinned post we have decided to make a public blog for the #BreedersCup2017. This write up contains tips, analysis and a blend of cutting edge data to bring you the best options for this #BC17.
May I add that this is a hard world, that of American racing, it is fiercely competitive & the culture, from riding to pace to tempo to most other things, is different to the European way drastically. We see all out action-packed aggression in the USA more than in the UK, where “travelling well” and “doing it in a sexy manner” is often viewed as the best way of winning.
Yes, this also exists in the USA, but not often have I seen a horse canter his way to the front and end up winning on the bridle, without being smacked, unless he’s a ridiculously short priced odds on fav. What I mean to say is that the norms of US racing can be different; the winning mentality reigns supreme, be the ride good, bad or ugly. Frankie Dettori will have learnt a lot, even being the global icon he is, from his first run at Del Mar recently when he broke slow and found all the rivals had pegged on full steam ahead.
Whereas in the UK visuals count for a lot of my selections, in the USA less so. There is a lot of hustle and bustle in #stateside races. Horses visuals vary; what does matter and count is the statistics on offer – for eg; we don’t know when Harry Angel, Caravaggio or Battaash last breezed 5f, or in what time, or where. But we do know these things about the top American horses. There is a lot of information on offer in the #USA that we do not have here in the UK, breezing, warm ups, training, and so on. This can be seen for many as a rant but it is actually me giving you my two pence of opinions on what we will see in the #BC17, which is all out, adrenaline packed, equine magnificence at play.
If you do not back a winner with our blog, remember this. Post-Breeders Cup there are trainers who release a few ‘good tings’ across the states. Baffert in particular sends out a few nice ones, historically, 14 days after the end of the BC. This is when the traders are less likely to detect a good ting, after all, the best racing show in the USA has just happened and if they weren’t there, how good can they be? Aha, not quite so straightforward, this game. Watch out for the undetected under the radar #GoodTings who will be re-appearing post-BC. I will keep you all informed as I have been told 1 or 2 already.
Now, for the analysis……
#LetsBashEm!
FRIDAY ACTION @ DEL MAR – 2017 #BreedersCup
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
I have just seen that Sky Bet have a first race special for which they are going each way 5 places in this race, and that will no doubt prove popular with a lot of punters. Happily and September dominate the market after bringing some tasty EU form to the table here, often in races vs eachother. The latter’s nose 2nd to Laurens in the G1 Fillies’ Mile, whereas Happily comes here after winning the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere Grand Criterium. An AoB 1-2 would not be a forlorn hope, more so considering that from 2008 to 2016 it was an all European (UK/IRE) domination of the event bar for 3 years. This means EU turfers have a nice chance here given the history books; Appleby, Gosden, Aidan O’Brien and even John Magnier’s mother (Hit A Bomb) have loved this race and trained the winners in it within the past decade. There is however a chance that the locals will “fight back” here, led by Bobby Frankel’s “progeny” of sorts, in Chad Brown.
Chad saddles 2 runners here. Significant Form represents the more conventional Chad Brown route for his winners of this race as they all won the race that Significant Form won coming into this. This horse cost more than half a million dollars and should run well. However, there is a runner here called Rushing Fall, available at around 10/3, whom I like a lot. This filly has made all the rage in the USA on the back of some super impressive wins #stateside. The formlines are also working out; the filly that was way back 2nd to Rushing Fall in a Belmont September maiden (Daddy is a Legend) came out after and did this: https://twitter.com/keenelandracing/status/923995873004093441 – Impressive. Rushing Fall then re-appeared after this and took the JP morgan Jessamine stakes race at Keeneland in impressive fashion, last to first, and it was amazing. This horse really has an engine and only recently breezed 4f in 4F in 47.80, so the well being is there. Yes, the form is open to question, more so when you put it into the context of what the AoB pair have achieved; wins in 2 nations, at EU G1 level. Happily herself has strong credentials on what she has already shown. That said, Rushing Fall smacks of an improver and of a horse who could be going places. We likely haven’t seen the best of her. Remember, same connections and kit as New Money Honey! This horse must be monitored closely.
At a price, Orbolution & Ultima D are worthy of close attention with our bookies going 5 places. The former we have history with and the latter too. Orbolution we have monitored up until the Miss Grillo 3rd but Ultima D is perhaps the more interesting one? John Magnier has a share in this horse who is by Scat Daddy and comes here on the back of a LTO victory in the Exacta Systems Juvenile Fillies Stakes @ Keeneland, beating a re-opposer here. That form will leave her with still, a lot to find, to catch up to the likes of Happily and so on. However, she did breeze 4f in 47.80 recently with stablemate Hemp Hemp Hurray and if she can somehow have a nice pace to aim at, she is a place contender with Tyler Gaffalione up top. This is another thing that interests me; the jockey factor. I would love for Tyler to be a Breeders Cup winner having followed his progress for months now from the muddy midweek Gulfstream to the high-flying sea side haven that is Del Mar.
WIN: RUSHING FALL
E/W: Have a poke @ Orbolution or, in particular, the Scat Daddy filly Ultima D.
Breeders Cup Dirt Mile
For the record, this is one of the races that I am least interested in throughout the next 2 days. You need not be a genius to work out the following, however. Mor Spirit the favourite beat Sharp Azteca the 2nd fav by 6 lengths LTO in the Belmont MET H’cap. What reason do we have to believe that this will not be the same case today? Mor Spirit is a Baffert horse, has Mike Smith up top, is chasing a four timer, is a graded stakes winner and ran away with a stakes race LTO with a main market rival here in behind. You can watch the replay here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok8DwWnP2bU – If this horse comes back to form after a layoff in anything remotely like the form in that video, he takes some stopping.
Let’s hunt some E/W value for those who prefer that option. There is a possibility here that Mr Chad Brown’s Practical Joke under Rosario could wear them all down in a gutsy, grinding fashion. This horses form figures in his last 3 runs read 131 with the 3rd coming in the G1 Haskell itself. Either side of that the horse is a stakes winner and LTO he beat a competitive field to take the Allen Jerkens. Takaful, American Anthem, Coal Front etc are no pushovers, and this means that Practical Joke, at around 7/1, has what it takes to be a solid each way contender in this race.
WIN: Mor Spirit
E/W: Practical Joke
Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf
This race is wide open and few of the European contingent really take my eye as outright win bets with solid win chances. As much as I love James Garfield & James Scott perhaps he could be vulnerable in this hustle and bustle affair. The same goes for Masar a horse I have a lot of time for and have written a fair bit about. I have followed all the EU horses since their first races so this is not easy for me.
There are, however, two #stateside runners here who I will fire some each way ammo at. One of them is Voting Control (10/1). This horse could be Chad Brown’s surprise one in the locker, he has to have one up his sleeve! He came 2nd to Seabhac in the Pilgrim Stakes LTO but was a runaway winner for Chad & Klaravich stables before that on debut. What brought me to the horse initially was the fact I follow the dams offspring; one of which included a Haydock debut scorer for Lanigan and a subsequent stateside scorer called Downton Kitten, a very nice horse. This Kittens Joy runner Voting Control is still largely unexposed and is a dark horse of sorts in this race. He has worked well with Time Test in training, which you can see here: http://www.xbtv.com/video/time-test/time-test-inside-and-voting-control-worked-4-furlongs-in-49-49-at-belmont-park-on-september-24th-2017/ – and basically this horse merits each way respect at a nice price. Javier Castellano takes the ride and whilst he lacks the profile of the EU runners, he could feature in the race for a top trainer/jockey combo.
I have another horse here from the local contingent who I will be playing as an exotic longshot, and that horse is the vastly overpriced Hemp Hemp Hurray (20/1). This horse was one of my first ever major whispers in the USA, when we were told he was a good good ting and would beat Earth on his second start, which he did in facile fashion. Earth is a good horse, mind. However, Hemp just destroyed him and is unlucky not to be unbeaten. Whatever happens here, follow Hemp Hemp Hurray. The Artie Schiller colt is 2-3 and was only beaten last time out by Untamed Domain in an agonizingly close photo finish in the 1m 20:50 Summer Stakes. If it wasn’t for that, Hemp Hemp Hurray would be 3-3 and would almost surely be a lower price in the market. Untaimed Domain for example is 12/1 where as this horse is 20/1, but I’d rather be on HHP, to be fair. The fact is that if you follow your american races you will know the horse lost little in defeat there, and representing Wesley Ward, he cannot be underestimated at a longshot price each way. John Velasquez takes the ride which is a positive.
E/W: Hemp Hemp Hurray & Voting Control.
Breeders Cup Distaff
Another race like the Dirt Mile where I am not dogmatic on any horse here and I will be open with my views. Elate is a really nice horse who was beaten by Abel Tasman last year in the American Oaks but has turned into a really formidable opponent since, hacking up in the Beldame LTO in a manner of a horse going places. She was 3/5 so was entitled to win but the manner in which she did it suggests that she is a real win contender here.
Abel Tasman is the forgotten horse here, though, at 8/1. He cnquered Elate already in the Oaks but was turned over LTO, though he was more than entitled to need that run. The Acorn Stakes & Kentucky Oaks winner represents the all conquering Mike Smith/Bob Baffert duo and at 8/1, represents real each way value, even if he most recent form (literally recent) is not as strong as the others. As we well know, horses have off days, they are beaten, and they are very likely to run better on another occasion. This could be the case for the Mount Nelson gelding. Bob Baffert chasing his first win in this race too, and that is an angle that might entice you or put you off. Abel Tasman went 7F in 1:25.60 at Santa Anita around 10 days from the gate with Hall of Fame Jockey Mike Smith aboard, so the jockey does know this horse well.
However, for all of this to happen, both horses will have to beat the worthy favourite Stellar Wind, a Curlin mare who is unbeaten since coming 4th in this race last year behind the likes of Beholder and Songbird. You could argue that this is a less competitive renewal and given Stellar Wind’s undefeated 3/3 this season, she is, ultimately, the worthy favourite. Those wins were at the highest level and one of them was at this track, so she has to be respected. She will be tough to beat today, even if Elate is on top form.
This is my analysis, and if there is a market I will do comb forecasts/tricasts on the 3 – if we get the trifecta; happy days! Overall, not a race I am wholly wholly dogmatic on and not a race I have an outright opinion on.
SATURDAY ACTION @ DEL MAR – 2017 #BreedersCup
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies
This, for me, is one of the most competitive races on the whole card. It contains horses who are lightly raced, unexposed and pretty much have the world at their feet.Alluring Star is a good horse, Seperationofpowers, our recent NAP, ran away with an event LTO in the manner of a Chad Brown horse going places. These horses are certainly contenders here and will make up many of my trifectas and exactas. However, one horse who I am most looking forward to seeing in the whole of the Breeders Cup 2017 is Moonshine Memories. Members will know all about this undefeated, tanky horse, who is trained by Simon Callaghan a UK native and a horse who has been tipped out by myself on all his career starts. This horse cost a pretty penny indeed and first took my eye because of the expensive purchase price as well as the fact that John Magnier et all “The Coolmore Clan” own a share in this one. Below you can see my write up for the Chandelier Stakes where Moonshine Memories won decisively.
Above is our LTO write up for this horse, whom we are keeping on the right side of. The Malibu Moon filly is a real tank and Simon Callaghan’s chance at making the front pages in the equine world, something he deserves. Sky Bet will have 5 places here, but the win preference for me is Moonshine Memories. If you are looking at a big, each way player, given the 5 places, there is some value to be had. I really like this MM so I will use her form lines as a guide; look at Piedi Bianchi at 14/1? This horse aims to make history by becoming just the first Indiana bred horse to run in a BC. Piedi has finished 2nd and 3rd behind Moonshine Memories on her last 2 starts. The Overanalyze filly is 20/1 right now, so 6 times the price of MM. Obviously with reason; given MM has the beating of her not once but twice. But what if this filly finally turns the tables? Stranger things have happened and Alluring Star only held on for 2nd by 0.5L LTO, and the price difference is big. With bookies going 5places, this one could make the top 5 at a nice price, returning a fifth of your odds times your stake.
WIN: Moonshine Memories.
Breeders Cup Mile
I don’t think the standard set by the Europeans is that high, believe it or not, and I think we may have arguably seen the best of Ribchester by now. Fancy that, for a sweeping statement to start off this #BC17 analysis! Well, defeats to Here Comes When & Persuasive recently show that the horse is more than beatable, at the least. Whilst he may be Europe’s best miler, he has been beaten by fillies twice and is entitled to be taken on here, especially by the home contingent. I have my eyes set on the locals here. World Approval is a horse that I am very keen on by virtue of the runaway victory LTO, as our NAP, in the competitive Woodbine Mile Stakes. Below, you can see my write up for that race. It was a runaway victory, impressive, the blazing grey took it from the front and never looked like stopping. The 6s and 8s available was very nice indeed – and now he’s fav for the BC Mile.
Basically, we have to remember that Casse trained Tepin, a really top top miler, one of my favourite racehorses of recent years, a horse who came over here to Royal Ascot and won – in style. Since Tepin’s retirement, Casse has gone from strength to strength but he is searching for that one, stable star that can cement his name at the top flight; similar to Lady Eli/Aurelia in their respective distances for Chad and Wesley, for example. This was the logic I used when tipping this horse out LTO & I hope he delivers again.
A point worth remembering on World Approval:
WIN: World Approval
Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf
I am a big fan of a few of these. Queen’s Trust won it last year, beating the much improved Lady Eli by a short head, that latter horse has worked wonders since and has established herself as a top, top animal. Queen’s Trust has been rather disappointing but has hardly had conditions that suit. The likes of Grand Jete, at a price, could also feature if they decide to turn up here. I would focus here, however, on the Chad Brown horses; Lady Eli and, at an each way price, both Grand Jete & Dacita. Both are supreme speedsters who will blaze up the field and be bang there at the finish. Lady Eli is a worthy favourite; since her defeat in the hands of Queen’s Trust in this event last year she has developed immensely, only losing once in 2017 in the Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes to Dickinson. She has wrapped up a solid profile coming into this, the Diana Stakes & the Woodford Reserve Ballston Spa Stakes are on her illustrious 2017 roll of honour, and she is a worthy favourite in this race for Chad Brown. I will play her for win purposes – that is to say, the win selection in the Filly & Mare Turf is Lady Eli.
If any horse disappoints the Grand Lady it will be a fellow Chad in mate, hence me flagging up bDacita and the Jete. Dacita is by Scat Daddy and she is around 14/1 right now, a huge price, as she won the Diana then came 2nd in the Flower Bowl LTO. She had previously beaten Grand Jete in the former contest, but the latter animal is a Juddmonte owned & bred horse who is really talented on a going day but is very quirky and hard to catch to be fair. The Dansili filly started 2017 off with a hat-trick but has found Dacita & co too good recently, coming behind that stablemate the last twice. I wouldn’t put it past her to reverse the form on the 3rd time of asking. Both these animals are worth each way consideration at big prices, 14/1 or higher, and in this race TPP will hope for a Chad Brown bonanza. Lets go, girls….!
WIN: Lady Eli
E/W: Chad Brown outsiders.
Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
This is a very open race for betting purposes in the sense that there is a warm favourite and the entire field bar this favourite can be well backed at an each way price, and with a top 3 finish we will get our money back and possibly a bit of profit. This is the way I see it at least. Unique Bella is 13/8 but she has impressed all along. However it won’t be a walk in the park for her; 2016 defending Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint champ Finest City draws the #4 and won’t go down without a fight.
Even the likes of Paulasilverlining are very interesting here at a nice price of around 12/1. The horse was bought by Juddmonte in 2016, sent to Chad and he got her to win that elusive G1; the Madison at Keeneland over this very distance. She followed that up with another G1 victory in the Humana Distaff at Churchill in the sloppy ground on the Kentucky Derby card. So, in the words of one Tweeter: “Who on Earth would bet, single, include, key Unique Bella v that field at 9-5? Against her hard on the win end if 9-5 holds.” (https://twitter.com/chare889/status/925139884779565056). This is an interesting conundrum that we have here. That Tapit filly Bella could very well be the ‘real deal’ but this is a tough field! She has earned comparisons to Songbird but she will need to demolish this field to justify those words. Remember, this is not impossible, I do like Bella, she is tough, game, and a real looker. My question is that from a purely betting angle, there could be what us Europeans call “each way value” in this race, namely from the likes of Paulassilverlining & last years winner, the very much forgotten, Finest City. I have no major opinion in this race and will tweet along the way, but above you have some each way alternatives to an ambiguous but catchy fav.
WIN: UNIQUE BELLA
E/W: Paulasilverlining
Breeders Cup Juvenile
For many, the NAP of the meeting is this enigmatic, powerhouse of a horse called Bolt D’Oro who is still trading at around 5/4 and can be backed at odds against here, as opposed to some quarters in the USA. I think this horse is one of the best chances of a winner at the Breeders Cup. The Bolt is ready to Go.
Just recently we had a double land at Santa Anita using the formlines from the Frontrunner Stakes which was competitive and Bolt d’Oro just travelled away with it and won really impressive. This horse is a “rave horse” who encounters his toughest task to date, because the likes of Free Drop Billy and even Firenze Fire will not go down without a fight; they look almost certain to also give their all and come in the top 3 or 4. At a price, you have the likes of Mendelssohn, who is by Scat Daddy and who is a half sister in her own right to Beholder. I know that a few stateside pedigree lovers will be chancing this one at a price and he could well be the each way longshot of the race, currently at around 12/1 or so. That said, if The Bolt runs to the expected level, we will see a good, good horse on show, who will take the world of beating. He is making all the rave in the USA and I can fully see why, I am really impressed by this horses profile and the visual manner in which he has won his races, this leaves me thinking he is a good ting in the #BC17.
WIN: BOLT D’ORO
The Breeders Cup Turf Sprint
This looks a really nice race too, and in this race, in her own country, with her last time out conqueror re-opposing, it’s time for the backers of Lady Aurelia to cash in after her LTO anguishing defeat when Frankie celebrated beforehand and left us all in limbo when Marsha was declared the winner. Marsha comes here with nothing to lose after a gallant 2nd to runaway winner Battaash LTO in France, she is owned by a loving, humble syndicate of many members, and this can be seen as the culmination of her lifes work. I would not put it past this beautiful horse to run a stormer and take this event; I have seen her develop form the York Ebor meeting when she beat Easton Angel (!) to what she is today; a sprinter to be reckoned with. I get the impression however that more than one of Wesley Ward’s team, including himself, were left absolutely gutted at what happened at Ascot recently, knowing how important that win was in propelling her to the very top of the sprinting global tree. This race, at Del Mar, in her own back yard, gives her a solid chance to prove that she is the rightful sprint queen.
In her home town, with conditions to suit, and after blazing up the gallops both here in the UK prior to Nunthorpe and post-Nunthorpe there in the USA, this should really be all about the Scatwoman Lady Aurelia. Her blistering pace is something else; explosive, determined, equine perfection. She will be ridden by Johnny V, who we have had much success with these past few months in the states. He rides the daughter of Scat Daddy in the USA while Frankie rides her in the EU. This race is all about HER.
WIN: LADY AURELIA.
Breeders Cup Turf
Signing in to sky bet today on the 31st I have seen an offer that might interest the heavy hitters; “either Ulysses or Highland Reel to win, EVENS” – not bad, considering we are speaking of the Reeler who has BC form and is Mr International, and Ulysses, who is a beast in his own right. I can definitely see the Europeans having one or two in the top 3 here. However, let’s be ambitious, this is, after all, America, the land of risks! What are we saying about Oscar Performance at a massive 16/1? This horse has been one of my favourite US Turf horse since last year when he was simply spectacular in his 1st win at Saratoga then brilliant in the Pilgram. He was my selection last time out at Arlington to beat the ill-fated Permian (RIP) in what was one of the hardest punting decisions I had to make, because I liked the two so much. Oscar Performance was game, under Jose Ortiz, as always, and was not for passing by any one in that field. The Kittens Joy runner comes here on the back of a 3rd placed finish in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes behind Beach Patrol & Chad’s Fanciful Angel (ex Botti, fast finishing 2nd in the Million).
Below and above you can see a series of tweets that show our #history with Oscar Performance, a really good horse who, if given too much freedom up top, could nick em all from the front. I have history with this horse way back in the race when poor old Permian last raced in, in Arlington, and I have basically followed this horse for a long time. There is a bit to find on the best of form of Reeler & Ulysses but I will have an each way bet on Oscar Performance. Remember: This horse won the BC Juvenile Turf last year, beating Lancaster Bomber. He does well in the big meets. Go on Jose Ortiz show the Europeans how you roll! –> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URcrWtwOgaA
E/W: OSCAR PERFORMANCE
Breeders Cup Classic
Bob Baffert won last 3 Classics and he goes for 4 with Arrogate, Collected, West Coast, and Mubtaahij. This is the first time a trainer has had more than 3 in this race. When you consider that Bob’s runners make up the top of the market, but not the favourite spot, you do imagine he has a good chance of getting one or two at least, in the top 3. I am going to be very very bold here and take on Gun Runner. I think the horse is great but I have never really latched on to the bandwagon behind this horse, because I think Arrogate is still a better horse and moreover, because West Coast is an improving, typical Baffert, Flatter-train. This means that one of my main fancies in this race is a Baffert 1-2, and I wouldn’t discount a 1-2-3 if Gun Runner doesn’t run to form.
Members will know all about West Coast. This horse is improving rapidly and is showing the USA why Bob has a dominance in the 3year old classic generation. Do you know that I tipped this horse out to members way back in the Los Alamitos Derby!? The write up is below:
Everything in the above still stands – note how Baffert said “east coast races with big trophies” – Baffert thinks he’s good, knows he’s good, and they are on record as saying that like Arrogate *last year*, they are taking “baby steps” with him. Could this be his time? Could this be the moment for the son of Flatter to shine?
Arrogate is the class animal, and I will not put you off sticking with the Longines World Number 1 horse. He is proven @ the top level but has underwhelmed recently. West Coast, on the other hand, goes from strength to strength, and the young pretender could serve it up to the Arro & the Runner.
BELOW: #TPP pontificates about his good tings 3 months ago, highlight West Coast as one of them – and here he is – in the biggest stage of them all! #BC17.
The Punters Guru 